Thursday, September 18, 2008

McCain moves ahead in electoral projections

After a month of positive movement in polls, electoral projections now who McCain moving ahead in electoral projections. Senate races still look like pick-ups for Dems, though I've suggested a better result of 49 Reps and 50 Dems with Lieberman playing spoiler.
Obama 243  
McCain 274  
Ties 21
strong Dem Strong Dem (143)
weak Dem Weak Dem (45)
barely Dem Barely Dem (55)
tied Exactly tied (21)
barely GOP Barely GOP (90)
weak GOP Weak GOP (23)
strong GOP Strong GOP (161)
270 Electoral votes needed to win
Map algorithm explained
We have 38 presidential polls today due to a large number of new ARG polls. The results are given below.
The upshot is that John McCain has taken the lead in the electoral college 274 to 243.

We also have a House poll in PA-11, where challenger Lou Barletta is leading incumbent Paul Kanjorski.
This may be the only House race in the country where an incumbent Democrat loses.

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